Showing posts with label Elections 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections 2014. Show all posts

May 25, 2014

UKRAINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2014 : The fate of the world is decided today.

At present, Ukraine held “elections “where the President will be selected for the period 2015 -2020.

 We will not cover because we understand that this is part of the "negotiations” where the “masters of the universe," the world is divided.

It is no coincidence that it is precisely now , when elections are held in Colombia , Venezuela and the Parliament of the European Union ... All important , as the result of them , will affect regional peace in South America, and the composition of Power in Europe .

But not as much as the Ukrainian territory historically intertwined with Mother Russia, as heirs of the Soviet Union, believe they have "rights" to the first, and are " ready for anything " recover, lost " influence " after the overthrow of Victor Yanukovich Amid the "fireworks " and the sudden support "intransigent " President Vladimir Putin, so there will be is " hostage exchange " where the Russians, " recover what belongs to them " in exchange for.... ! ?

Sea, anyone, who “succeed “, respond to Russian interests, Ukraine.

Therefore, the candidate “pro-European”, Yulia Tymoshenko, is not included with any opportunity, surveys, appearing with anemic 8%.

Being the favorite Petro Poroshenko , who has promised to "fix the problem " with the Russians , appearing with solid 44 % in the polls, + / - 30 % difference on " rivals "

Poroshenko , like Putin are " business " and " know understood ". Entrepreneurs are driven by interests, not by ideology . For one thing, the favorite is the “Chocolate King” to give “hot” to “cold " bilateral relations.

The relief is that although this event, is a farce, a show, at least ensures tranquility, the rest of the world ... But in the end, someone will lose.

May 24, 2014

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, COLOMBIA 2014 : Results and Forecasts, in the first round .


This Sunday , the Republic of Colombia , which holds elections will be selected, President and Vice President for the period 2014-2018 .



What looked like a sure reelection of President Juan Manuel Santos, in the first round has been affected by the doubts generated in their health after surgery for prostate cancer

- The division of the right platform, which gave sustenance, with Uribe on one side and conservatives on the other , each with its own candidates .

 - The scandal , his strategist JJ Rendón , involved in "reach bridges" drug trafficking.

- The difficulties and sabotage against the peace process, to insert the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC ), to civilization.

These factors have affected so that the colorless, challenger candidate Uribe , Oscar Ivan Zuloaga, is going up in the polls, and catch him in the preferences ... Thanks to the undisputed leadership of former President Alvaro Uribe Velez. 

 But nevertheless, insufficient :

Because the candidate Uribe, raises concern, with fears that definitely abort the peace dialogue , while on the other hand, you spy scandal erupts and sabotage.

Because President Santos, despite the drop in acceptance has been stabilized thanks to the strength of its vice presidential candidate German Vargas Lleras, the incorporation of former President Cesar Gaviria. and the call to cover , by his former rival Antanas Mockus, because it would "vote for peace "

Besides the plays went well , the most recent debate between the presidential candidates , according to analysts .

This situation, without surveys, make us foresee holding second round, with Ivan Zuloaga and Juan Manuel Santos as classified.

Already at this stage, we shall see, they bring the circumstances.

May 3, 2014

PANAMA GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014 : Results and tips .


This Sunday, the sister Republic of Panama , held elections for president , vice president , 20 deputies to the Central American Parliament, 71 members of the National Assembly , 77 mayors and other authorities for the period 2014-2019 .



 While polls show "closed" competition between 3 candidates , from our point of view , for the first time in the political history of Panama , a party will repeat , for a new term : Democratic Change .

The reasons , as follows:

- The enthusiastic support of President Ricardo Martinelli , of popular acceptance of 67% .

- The nomination for Vice President , the First Lady , Marta Linares de Martinelli.

- The record, of all the opinion polls , which provide the first, José Domingo Arias , with an average of 37 %, followed by Juan Carlos Navarro ( 32%), and Vice President Juan Carlos Varela ( 23%).

- The geopolitical situation of the moment, in which the United States can not afford , "enemies governments," managing the strategic Panama Canal . A fortiori, when it is in the process of enlargement.

- All other candidates have identical speech. The incumbent candidate , has come out victorious in debates .The " law of averages " , until now, no ruling party has continued uninterruptedly in power. Based on this law, the time has come for it.

 UPDATE 05/05/2014: Panama = Costa Rica.
Fell forward, with prognosis in Panama is going like Costa Rica, where the third in the polls, wins the Presidency of the Republic.
I suspect, Ruben Blades statements against the government candidate, just one day before, were decisive.

March 8, 2014

EL SALVADOR 2014 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Results and predictions, in the second round.

This Sunday, the sister Republic of El Salvador, held the second round of the elections, which elected President and Vice President, for a period of 5 years.



Even if you do not believe it, we are to forecast, very difficult, where anyone can succeed. True, the candidate of the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front ( FMLN), classified comfortably to the second round, nearly 2 points to 50%.

But this case is very different, there is a gap, it does, that this second round is unpredictable:

- The distance between first and second place, thousandths, did not exceed the 10 percentage points in the first round.

So far nobody has been able to overcome advantages of more than 10 points from there to many parts of the world, has been consecrated, that candidate winning more than 45 % with 10 percentage points of advantage over the second, automatically, you will declare a winner ... But that's not the case ... As we said, above, by thousandths (equivalent to a handful of thousand votes), was not achieved.

- The " give and take " between Russia and the United States , with the probable " hostage exchange " part of the second , giving Ukraine, in favor of the former, in exchange for his " primacy in the West " could overturn the results in favor of the candidate of the National Republican Alliance (ARENA )

We must remember that Central America is a very strategic location for the United States in its " fight against drug trafficking and terrorism ," conquered El Salvador , as an "ally " entrench the steps in that purpose.

To this we add the events in Venezuela, at present, remains to be seen if that could influence in the electorate.
- Virtual draw, between the candidates ... We have been informed that there is a "tie " between the candidates, just milliseconds apart, both " planted " in 48 %.

But taking into account the tacit support of the disqualified candidate, third, former President Elias Antonio Saca, for Antonio Sanchez Cerén , FMLN , this organization during his government continued progress, enjoying , Salvadorans , and because " very nearly " , was elected in the first round ....

I "conditioned” for Sanchez Cerén prediction as the next President of El Salvador, where warning, I have very high, chances of being wrong.